"A Three-Dimensional View of the Israel-Iran Crisis"

GS PAPER 2

Netanyahu's Concerns and Iran's Aggression

Netanyahu identifies Iran as the top threat to Israel's security, emphasizing Iran's expansionist ambitions in the Middle East.
Iran's direct attack on Israel with drones and missiles in April 2024 marks a significant escalation, breaching Israel's deterrence.

Biden Administration's Approach

Biden aims to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from escalating into a broader regional war, supporting Israel's military actions while pursuing diplomatic initiatives to manage tensions.
Challenges arise due to limited U.S. leverage over Iran and Israel's broader strategy against Iranian influence beyond Gaza.

Escalation Risks and U.S. Strategic Priorities

Israel's strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus sets the stage for potential Israel-Iran confrontation.
The U.S. seeks to avoid being drawn into a regional conflict with Iran amid other strategic priorities in Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Shadow War and Israeli Actions

Israel conducts numerous airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian interests and carries out operations inside Iran, including high-profile assassinations.
Israeli strikes aim to undermine Iran's deterrence but have historically faced limited retaliation.

Netanyahu's Dilemma and U.S. Position

Netanyahu prefers a forceful response to Iran but is constrained by U.S. reluctance to engage in a direct conflict.
Israel's response to Iran's attack remains restrained to avoid further escalation and maintain U.S. support.

Iran's Strategic Calculus

Iran demonstrates strategic patience in its conflict with Israel, maintaining a long-term view of its regional influence.
Improved ties with Russia and China and perceived U.S. reluctance to engage in prolonged conflicts bolster Iran's confidence.

Impact of Recent Events

Israel's actions in Gaza and the international response weaken Israel's position in the region.
Iran's attack on Israel signals a shift in the regional dynamics, with implications for future conflict and strategic calculations.

Pattern of Iranian Actions

Iran's history of launching attacks against U.S. allies without significant repercussions underscores shifting power dynamics in the Middle East.